What If India Takes Back PoK? Possible Implications

We know that Pakistan has illegally occupied a major part of Jammu and Kashmir known as Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). In the last few years there were strong statements from Indian High officials about PoK. External affairs minister S. Jaishankar in 2019 said “PoK is part of India and we expect one day to have physical jurisdiction over it.” Such statements started the debate over possible implications if India takes back PoK.

In this article, we will try to understand the possible consequences of India’s physical control of PoK. The article will try to explain implications under different headings like economic, political, geopolitical, etc. Also, we shall assess the impact on issues like terrorism, separatism, and international relations.

What Is PoK?

Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) comprises of different regions. These are so-called Azad Kashmir, Gilgit, Baltistan, and the area of Shaksgam valley which is gifted by Pakistan to China.

See the map below-

How Can India Take Back PoK?

Before diving into consequences, let’s understand how the operation of taking back PoK may look like.

It is clear that Pakistan isn’t going to have over PoK to India peacefully. This is nearly impossible to happen solely through the diplomacy route. Military action is needed. This military action should be very short, swift, and decisive. A prolonged war increases the risk of crossing the nuclear threshold. No one would want the war to go unclear. Also, there is a very high risk of a two-front war if China gets involved actively.

PoK is highly militarized by Pakistan. Therefore the important military installations need to be taken down first followed by capturing territory. Indian armed forces will operate in synergy. Airstrikes, movement of armoured formations and infantry, use of strategic weapons like missiles, and action by the Indian Navy in the Arabian sea should be done with close cooperation.

Possible Implications Of Taking Back PoK

Economy

The cost of war is always tremendous. With new weapons and technologies wars are increasingly becoming expensive. The strategic foresight group has given the following data. (See image below). As per this, India spent 14.6 Billion Rupees per day on confrontations. This is data for 2002-03. The cost is increased manifold today.

Just imagine what a full scale war to capture PoK will cost. After capturing the territory, India is likely to face resistance from some local groups. Thus the region needs to be highly militarized. This will add up to the costs. Also the loss of invaluable lives of our brave soldiers cannot be compared with any other loss.

On the other hand India can gain economically to an extent. PoK is full of natural resources. Hydropower potential of the region is immense. Thus the PoK can contribute towards India’s increasing energy demands. Also there is huge scope for tourism industry.

Political Implications-

The internal politics of India is sensitive to such issues. Unfortunately, we have some people who can’t stand for unity when the question of national interest especially national security comes up. It’s highly likely that opposition parties will question such an operation despite knowing its strategic significance. Politics may take precedence over national interest. Also, the support of common people will depend on how successful this operation is.

International Politics-

Such events of capturing a territory with military action are rare in recent times. The international community generally criticizes such acts. For example, the annexation of Crimea by Russia was condemned by the West. Russia was subsequently expelled from G8 and it became G7.

The importance of Pakistan for America had increased again as it is leaving Afghanistan hastily. Thus India should be ready to face bitter criticism. This will be the test of Indian diplomacy to put India’s legitimate stand before the world and convince them to support India.

Terrorism: Will Pakistan Sponsored Terrorism End?

Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in India especially the Kashmir valley will drastically reduce. This is because most of the terror launch pads and valleys for intrusion are there in PoK. We cannot say that terrorism will end totally because Pakistan is unlikely to abandon this long-time policy of proxy war. Instead, it will increase this against Indian forces but the battleground will now be shifted from Kashmir valley to the PoK.

Regional Geopolitics

Regional geopolitics will be the most affected aspect. Taking back PoK offers tremendous prospects for India. These are as follows.

1. The direct land route to Afghanistan- Gilgit is connected to the Wakhan corridor of Afghanistan. Direct land connectivity will reduce India’s dependence on Pakistan and Iran to reach Afghanistan. India can play a major role in Afghanistan in upcoming volatile conditions. Trade will increase with Central Asia, Russia, and Europe as well. Also, a gas pipeline from Tajikistan can be brought to India bypassing Pakistan.
2. Cutting off Pakistan from China- There won’t be direct land connectivity between Pakistan and China. Also, India can block airspace to them. Thus the only way for connectivity would be the much longer and inconvenient sea route. This will be a big setback to the China-Pakistan nexus. China won’t be in a position to give immediate military support to Pakistan in the future.
3. End of CPEC– China-Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC) will come to an end giving a big setback to China’s global ambitions.

Relations With Pakistan After Taking Back PoK

They will be at their lowest. Now the fight between India and Pakistan will take place at India Pakistan international border and not at LoC (Line of Control) which is inside India’s territory. Now Pakistan’s focus will be shifted towards taking back PoK. Taking back Kashmir will be less significant now for Pakistani strategists.

Relations With China

China’s interests will also be drastically affected. It has heavily invested in CPEC. China won’t want to give away such heavy investments to India easily. So there is the threat of a two-front war with China coming to support Pakistan. India needs to upgrade its military capabilities to counter such a threat.

Jammu And Kashmir

With difficulty in support from Pakistan, separatism in Kashmir will reduce drastically. The union territory will experience stability and economic development.

Conclusion

This article intended to give an overlook of possible implications if India takes back PoK. We saw that implications on different fronts are mixed one. There will be loss on economic front. International image may get damaged and it will be much difficult to administer the newly acquired territory.

On the other hand, there will be immense geostrategic advantages. The whole central Asian region and further Europe will become more accessible to India by land route. China Pakistan nexus can be broken down and terrorism will get a big setback.