What If India Takes Back Aksai Chin? Possible Implications

In the last article, we discussed what will happen if India takes back PoK. In this article, we will try to understand possible implications if India takes back Aksai Chin from China. We will also discuss possible challenges involved and when it may happen.

We know that Aksai Chin is part of Ladakh and an integral part of India’s territory. But China has captured it illegally. In recent times there have been strong statements from the Indian minister about Aksai Chin. Home minister Amit Shah had said in parliament that we are committed to taking back Aksai Chin same as PoK. While talking about the ongoing India China standoff in eastern Ladakh, defence minister Rajnath Singh said that China has illegally occupied 38,000 sq km of Indian territory. Clearly, he was referring to the Aksai Chin.

Background

Aksai Chin is the plain area in the east of Ladakh. Before independence, it was part of Ladakh which was under Dogra kings of Jammu and Kashmir. Johnson’s line was drawn by the British government which also accepted that Aksai Chin is part of India. After independence, the Government of India followed this Jonson line and showed Aksai Chin on India’s map. But during the 1950s, China slowly and illegally occupied Aksai Chin. It also constructed a road passing through there. This is the Karakoram Highway. It connects Xinjiang and Tibet provinces, currently under China’s control.

Once knowing about this, India’s Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru ordered the Forward policy. As per this, Indian forces went up to India’s claim lines and established posts there. But China made the excuse for this as Indian aggression and attacked in 1962. There were flaws in Forward policy. Very less soldiers were deployed on posts. Necessary logistic and supply lines were not there. Infrastructure was poor. As a result, India lost the war. Since then Aksai Chin is under China’s illegal occupation.

Note– Here we won’t discuss the debate that India should or shouldn’t capture Aksai Chin. We will briefly discuss the possible military operation. We will mainly focus on possible implications and some challenges.

How Does The Military Operation May look Like?

There is a very low possibility of the war going nuclear as both India and China are committed to no first use policy. Therefore there can be conventional warfare.

Land warfare– War in Aksai Chin will be a high-altitude war. Indian Army is well known for its expertise in high-altitude warfare. There can be cross-border commando raids by Para special forces, ITBP commandos, and Special Frontier Force (SFF). They will try to take out important bases with a surprise attack. The battle of tanks and armoured formations can also take place. India’s medium tanks like T-72 and T-90 are already deployed in the region. China has its Type-15 light tanks deployed in Aksai Chin. But there are limitations on tank operations due to difficult terrain. So Anti Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM) will play a crucial role here.

Air warfare– Both India and China have deployed matching strength of aerial assets on either side of LAC. Since last year, there are numerous reports of China rapidly upgrading its airbases here. However, India enjoys a geographic advantage here. Three main Chinese airbases viz. Kashgar, Hotan, and Ngari Gunsa are at high altitudes. On the other hand, most Indian airbases are in the plain region. Thus Indian fighter jets can operate with their full potential, unlike Chinese aircraft. India’s Rafale, Su-30 MKI, MiG-29, and Mirages will play a crucial role. China has deployed various fighters like J-7, J-16 and also strategic bombers, and so-called fifth-generation J-20. Thus tough air combat can be seen.

Possible Implications

1. Geo-Strategic Advantages For India

1. Capturing Karakoram Highway– India can cut down the connectivity between Xinjiang and Tibet provinces of China. These two provinces are a major headache for China. There is insurgency going on in Xinjiang. Also Tibetan can rise against Chinese occupation at any time. This will be a nightmare for China.
2. Consolidating positions in Ladakh– Now the battleground will be shifted from eastern Ladakh to Aksai Chin. Ladakh will be better protected from any Chinese aggression with Aksai Chin as a buffer.
3. Securing Siachen– Some experts say that current Chinese aggression in eastern Ladakh can be aimed at cutting India’s connectivity with the Siachen glacier. The geo-strategic importance of Siachen for India is well known.

2. Regional Geopolitics

China will have a major setback to its regional and global aspirations. China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) will face a setback with India capturing Karakoram Highway. Also this will limit its activities in PoK and Afghanistan.

3. International Politics

China is currently seen as an aggressor. There is hardly any neighboring country of China with whom it doesn’t have a border dispute. Thus if India takes back its territory from China it will naturally become the leader of the counties affected by China’s aggressive policies. Also India’s weight in anti China platforms like Quad and proposed D10 (Democratic 10) will increase.

4. Economy

Cost of war will be undoubtedly massive for India. This is due to following reasons.

1. Both the countries have advanced weapons. Though, both are very unlikely to use nuclear weapons but use of advanced conventional weapons can also made war much more destructive and expensive.
2. India will need to enhance military capability before launching any operation. This will cost dearly.
3. Aksai Chin is difficult to access from Indian side compared to China’s side due to difficult terrain. Thus massive infrastructure needs to be put in place.

Challenges In Capturing Aksai Chin

1. Bridging gap with China- Currently, China is economically and militarily advanced than India. This gap needs to be filled. However, in the Ladakh region, India will be even at advantage in some aspects. (YouTube channel Defence Matrix has busted the myth of China’s military superiority in one of their recent videos. Do watch). However, we have to have better military capability than China for capturing Aksai Chin.
2. Timing of the action- This move should be taken at a time when China will be weaker. There may be either an internal problem in China or when China is engaged in a full-fledged war on some other front.
3. Possibility of reaction from China- China will surely try to recapture Aksai Chin. Thus India needs to consolidate its hold on the area.
4. Other theatres- India should strengthen defences at other fronts like Arunachal Pradesh as China can launch a counteroffensive there.

When Will India Take Back Aksai Chin?

As per the analysis of recent happenings, action on PoK may happen before Aksai Chin. It may happen well within this decade if not in the next 4-5 years but we have to wait for more for taking back Aksai Chin.

However, this is just speculation. As per Hans J. Morgenthau, a political thinker, international politics especially war is very unpredictable. Thus no one can predict exactly when it will happen. So only the Government of India and the top leadership of India’s armed forces know when and how this will happen.

Conclusion

China-focused on its territorial integrity from starting. It followed policies like the One China policy and Palm and 5 fingers policy for this. India on the other hand has its own territories like PoK and Aksai Chin under the enemy’s control. Disputes regarding these consume a lot of economic, military, and diplomatic energy. This dispute needs to be ended. One way often suggested by some people is accepting control of China and Pakistan on these territories and accepting the current LoC and LAC as International borders. But we need to think, is this a logical step by the country that is aspiring to be a global superpower and a Net Security Provider in the region? How the world will think about such a country?

Capturing territories is not the only or a major step in becoming a superpower, much more needs to be done, but establishing our own territorial sovereignty is an important milestone in this journey.