India Out Campaign: A Crunch In India Maldives Ties
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The Maldives is a small island nation located in the Indian Ocean, southwest of Sri Lanka and India. It consists of 26 atolls, which are made up of over 1,000 coral islands. The capital city of the Maldives is Male. Historically, India and the Maldives share ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious, and commercial links and enjoy close, cordial, and multi-dimensional relations. India was among the first to recognise the Maldives after its independence in 1965. For India, the Maldives are strategically significant given their location in the Indian Ocean. Though Indo-Maldives relations have been cordial, recently there has been a spike in anti-India sentiments in the Maldives. This rise in anti-India sentiment is the culmination of several factors, the most prominent of which is Chinese interference in the domestic politics of the Maldives. In this article, we’ll look into the India out-campaign and its implications for regional security and India.
MOHAMED MUIZZU: THE MAN BEHIND INDIA OUT CAMPAIGN IN MALDIVES
Mohamed Muizzu, who was formerly the mayor of the capital Male, is now elected as the new president of the Maldives. Muizzu belongs to the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM) and defeated incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). He garnered 54% of the votes and is set to be sworn in on November 17. He is the main proponent of anti-India sentiments in the Maldives. Muizzu formulated the India Out campaign as his electoral manifesto and incited hatred towards the Indian developmental presence in the Maldives. During his election rallies, he vowed to drive out Indian troops from the Maldives in what he called gaining true freedom. He also accused the then president, Ibrahim Solih, of giving India a free pass in the Maldives. Even after the results, he reiterated that he would start working to remove Indian military personnel stationed in the country.
Mohamed Muizzu, President of Maldives
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Mohamed Muizzu in the Maldives’ domestic politics is seen as a pro-China leader, as opposed to Ibrahim Solih, who’s known for a balanced approach. Muizzu’s party, PPM, has a long track record of entanglements with the Chinese. In fact, it was Muizzu’s party leader and former president Abdulla Yameen who, under his tenure from 2013–18, brought the Maldives under China’s BRI project. Muizzu served as housing minister in Yameen’s government. Yameen lost power in 2018 and is currently serving an 11-year prison term for corruption and money laundering. With the return of pro-China Muizzu as the new president, China is set to regain its lost hold on the island nation. In fact, many believed that after the imprisonment of Yameen, Muizzu got backing and financial assistance from China. The India Out campaign is the result of China’s funding and efforts through Muizzu to counter India’s presence in the Maldives.
Also Read, Is Nepal The Next Victim In China’s Geopolitical Game?
SUSTAINED CHINESE INFLUENCE IN THE MALDIVES
China has been expanding its presence in the Indian Ocean archipelago since 2010. But the real watershed moment in the Sino-Maldivian relationship came in 2013 after Abdulla Yameen came to power. Coincidentally, during this same time, dictator Xi became the Chinese president and launched the ambitious BRI project. Subsequently, in 2014, the Maldives signed the BRI project and became the second South Asian nation, after Sri Lanka, to do so. Soon, China started flushing dollars into various projects without any economic viability assessments. China also became the leading source of tourists to the Maldives. Here it is pertinent to note that China, which only permits its nationals to visit countries with approved destination status (ADS), rigidly controls its outbound tourism as a form of economic leverage. This means China could strangle the Maldives largest sector, contributing around 28% of GDP and 60% of foreign reserves.
Under Yameen’s government, the country’s debt to China soared to one-fifth of the country’s GDP. According to the former president and speaker of the parliament, Mohamed Nasheed, the Maldives, under Yameen, accumulated a debt of nearly $3.1 billion. Though many others believed it to be around $1.1 billion–$1.4 billion, which is nonetheless still a large amount for a country with a GDP of $4 billion, there was also talk of the Yameen government granting China a naval base in the Maldives. Fortunately, before any steps were taken in this direction, Yameen lost the election in 2018 and was subsequently jailed for corruption. For China, Yameen was just an asset to exercising its influence in the island nation. Today, it seems Muizzu will turn out to be China’s second Yameen. It would be too early to make any speculations, but still, fruits don’t fall far from the tree.
IMPLICATIONS ON INDIA AND THE REGION
India confers great strategic importance to the Maldives, primarily due to two reasons. Firstly, India considers the Indian Ocean as its background and is a de facto net security provider in the region. For the Maldives, India has in actuality provided security since, in 1988, India launched Operation Cactus to prevent a coup d’état attempt. Secondly, the geographic location of the Maldives makes it a strategic vantage point to counter China’s string of pearls doctrine. Losing it to China means opening a doorway for Chinese vessels into the Indian Ocean in the south. Therefore, to keep the island nation afloat and not completely trap itself in China’s debt, India asserted its influence. To counter China, India carried out several developmental projects and also assisted the Maldives in its defence and security. So, these projects are as follows:
- The partnership between the two countries is based on India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy and the Maldives’ “India First” policy. This ranges from economic assistance to defence cooperation in the Indian Ocean region.
- India and the Maldives also hold joint military exercises named “Ekuverin,” which means friend.
EKUVERIN EXERCISE, 2019.
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- In 2020, India supplied a Dornier maritime surveillance aircraft to the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) to bolster its surveillance capability. These MNDF personnel are given platform training and guidance by a small number of Indian soldiers stationed in the Maldives. This aircraft is also used for humanitarian and disaster management operations.
- India also carried out several infrastructure projects, like the Gulhifalhu Port Project and the Hulhumalé cricket stadium. India also trains the Maldives’ civil servants in India.
- In 2021, India granted a line of credit worth $500 million to the desperate Maldives under the Greater Male Connectivity Project. This project consists of a 6.74-kilometre-long bridge and causeway link between Male and the nearby islands of Villingli, Gulhifalhu, and Thilafushi. It will use renewable energy.
DIEGO GARCIA: THREAT OF ESPIONAGE
Another country that has to bear the brunt of the pro-China policies of Mr. Muizzu is the USA. The US has its most significant naval base, Diego Garcia, in the southern Indian Ocean. The proximity between Malé and Diego Garcia is just 1173 km. A future Chinese naval presence in the Maldives would mean espionage risk for the USA. It is important to note that the Maldives have many islands, some of which are even closer to the base. The possibility of such a situation is real, as China has a way of acquiring assets after trapping a nation in its debt trap. From surveillance balloons to interception naval vessels, China would leave no stone unturned to get intelligence about Diego Garcia. In this scenario, the Maldives could get caught between the two as cannon fodder. This could also unfold into a major escalation between the US and China.
CONCLUSION
A pro-China stooge as head of a strategic island nation is not what India asked for, but you play the hand you’re dealt with. That’s classic geopolitics; not everything remains convenient all the time. It’s times like these when there is a true test of diplomacy for a country. The silver lining in this situation is a window for cooperation between India and the US on this issue. India and the US could jointly ensure, through diplomatic, economic, or, if needed, military means, that the Maldives doesn’t become another Chinese vassal state like Pakistan. It is pertinent for the security and defence of both India and the US. They could also collaborate with other QUAD members, as we had already lost many small nations to the Chinese trap. It is crucial to collaborate and send a clear message to China, thus far and no further.