Can Drones Replace Fighter jets?

Introduction

World war I was the first major war that saw fighter aircraft used in aerial combat. Initially, they were used for reconnaissance purposes (due to the primary nature of trench warfare) but with further development, they were fitted with machine guns and were made potent to shoot down enemy aircraft. Jets were first introduced in the second world war by Germany (Me 262A). Ever since then, fighter jets have been the deadliest weapon for aerial warfare. Their capabilities range from air dominance, and air superiority to electronic warfare. Decades of research and improvement have made them capable of attacking with precision and deliver maximum damage. They can hide from enemy radars and carry out strikes in enemy territory.

Their role as a devastating force is shadowed by the requirements of modern warfare. 21st-century conflicts are characterized by long time and low intensity. Examples include cross-border terrorism by Pakistan, the conflict between HAMAS and Israel, and that between Turkey and Syria. These conflicts require low-cost, highly precise ammunition and strikes. Using conventional air power is expensive and also carries with it the risk of escalation of the conflict to a full fledge war. Such circumstances have forced modern militaries to study the viability of drones as an alternative to fighter jets.

Present Status of Combat drones

Today, 35 countries possess drones, 25 have the capacity to develop them and 12 have actually used them. Combat drones are in the early stages of development and usage. Countries like the USA, Turkey, China, Pakistan, and Russia use a sizeable number of well-developed drones like the MQ9 Reaper, NESCOM Burraq, and the Bayraktar TB2; but most militaries are studying their reliability and dependence. Their role has been clearly observed in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict as well as the Russia-Ukraine war. They have proved their effectiveness by immobilizing mechanized and armoured troops.

Drones have been conventionally used for ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) purposes. Drones like MQ-9 Reaper and IAI Heron have the capacity to hover for more than 50 hours and relay live situations of the battleground. They are capable of carrying weapons with them and striking at the enemy location. In the same direction, some of the emerging technologies are:-

Emerging Technologies in drone warfare

Swarm Drones: The term refers to a large number of integrated small UAVs that may be used to attack adversaries. They are highly effective in attacking the enemy’s air defence as they will saturate the air defence due to their large number rendering it useless. Even if the air defence is able to shoot some of them then the remaining will carry out the attack. In addition, they are cost-effective in comparison to SAMs (Surface to Air Missiles). 

Loitering munitions: Another emerging technology in relation to UAVs is the concept of loitering munition. They are a special kind of aerial weapon system that can remain in the air for an extended period of time waiting for the enemy and will attack as and when the enemy is exposed. They are fixed-wing aircraft and resemble missiles. The main difference between a missile and loitering munition is that it is fully autonomous in comparison to a semi-autonomous missile. It requires no human intervention once it is launched. They are mainly developed to target the SAM systems of the enemy. While a typical SAM missile has a duration of 4.5 minutes between launch and detonation, loitering munitions can stay aerial for more than 2.5 hours; therefore, they are highly effective and accurate in carrying out small-scale operations.

Advantages of Drones over Fighter jets

1. Difficulty in identifying: Drones have very low radar signatures and heat signatures making it difficult for the air defence system to identify them. In comparison, fighter jets due to their relatively huge size and conventional heat exhaust systems are easy to identify and engage.
2. Cost-effective: While the 4.5 generation Rafale jet costs around $115mn, the deadly and most advanced MQ-9 Reaper drone costs around $32mn. This discount makes them attractive for use in low-scale conflict or proxy wars. For the same reason, they were widely used in Afghanistan by the U.S.
3. No sophisticated training required: Considering the operational aspects of drones, they do not require intensive training of the pilot to operate them. This makes them more efficient in deployment during a war scenario.
4. Maneuverability: They are agile and more maneuverable as there are no overload constraints which gives them an edge in combat and carrying out CI/CT operations. Their ability to be operated remotely eliminate the chances of risking the lives of soldiers
5. Extended range of roles: Due to their highly customizable nature, today we have drones that can carry out strikes like the MQ-9 Reaper, and perform ISR roles like IAI Heron drones (also used by the Indian military). They can also be used as target decoys to distract the enemy and launch an attack from the other side.

Advantages of Fighter Jets Over Drones

1. Speed and positioning: Drones are no match for the supersonic speeds of fighter jets as of now. In the case of air-to-air combat between a drone and a fighter; it is highly likely that the jet will win unharmed. The first case of such combat was in December 2002 between an Iraqi MIG 25 and an American UCAV. The drone was downed and the MIG got out unscathed.
2. Payload capacity: Drones like Bayraktar TB2 and MQ-9 Reaper can carry load of 150Kg and 1800Kg respectively. The Su-30 MKI alone can carry upto 8,000Kg on its 12 hardpoints. Therefore, when it comes to carrying tactical as well as strategic weapons (including nukes), the fighters will be the preferred choice.
3. Less vulnerability: Drones are remotely operated and rely on satellite communication. Any interruption in the signals can paralyze the operation and mislead the drone increasing the chances of loss and accidents. Swarm drones are most vulnerable to such challenges because of the high level of integration. On the other hand, fighter jets have advanced electronics and avionics for communication. Even if one fails the others will not be affected.
4. Human element: Drones are equipped with advanced algorithms, AI, advanced sensors etc. for target detection and elimination. But in fast-paced encounters like dog fights, there is no match for the flexible human brain. Pilots in the cockpits have a better line of sight than the operators of drones sitting in remote locations. This gives them an edge in making critical decisions.
5. Adaptability: Manned fighter jets are able to adapt to changing conditions in the air more quickly than drones. This allows them to respond to threats more effectively.
6. Endurance: Manned fighter jets have greater endurance than drones as they are able to stay in the air for longer periods of time with external fuel tanks or mid-air refueling capacity. This gives them a strategic advantage in air superiority operations

Indian Context in Drone Warfare

India’s journey in UCAVs started with the AURA program sanctioned in 2009 with a budget of Rs. 12.5 Crores. After its completion in 2013, the project was renamed UCAV Ghatak. The project is aimed at the development of a stealthy UCAV based on flying wing design (for lower radar signature). It will be weighing less than a fighter jet and will be powered by a turbofan engine. In 2020, a small prototype of Ghatak was tested namely SWiFT (Stealth Wing Flying Testbed). It was successful and the UAV achieved a speed of 190km/h.

The eminent threat of drone warfare is posed by Pakistan and China. Both countries have an edge over India in this realm. Both countries showcased their drone warfare capabilities last year with Pak showcasing its latest Shahpar-2 UCAV. It is capable to carry missile strikes and has a range of about 1050 km. China flaunted its latest Wing Loong-3 UCAV having an intercontinental range of about 10,000 km and it can carry up to 16 missiles and bombs. Both countries possess tactically superior combat drones and it requires India to speed up the UCAV development process.

Conclusion

In light of the above analysis, and considering the present state of development of combat drones we can see that fighter jets are to remain in fashion in the near term. The potential devastation, their upper hand in the case of air superiority, and their multirole capability make them fierce in a war scenario. Experts debate over the potential uses of drones in combat and how they can save the lives of pilots by not putting them in difficult situations at the first place.

As per various experts, we are going through the transition phase from manual to autonomous warfare and the best strategy in this phase is an increased man-machine engagement which was also endorsed by Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhary in one of his interviews. By collaborating with domestic academic institutions and foreign partners; and focusing on indigenous development, India would be able to enhance its autonomous firepower at a rapid pace.