Can Pakistan Ensure Safety of SCO Delegations?

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As the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit slated for 15-16 October approaches, Pakistan’s interior ministry invoked article 245 to approve heavy army deployment to maintain an illusion of safety amidst growing fears of terrorist attacks and insurgency as the country grapples with political turmoil and increased separatist movements. However, the security only covers areas prioritized by the Pakistani establishment like the Islamabad Red Zone from Oct 5-17.

The Lack of Confidence on Pakistan Stems from Recent Attacks:

Repeated attacks by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan:

On September 22, a roadside bomb hit a convoy of foreign diplomats including Ambassadors from Indonesia, Portugal, Kazakhstan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Turkmenistan, Vietnam, Iran, Russia and Tajikistan who were visiting northwest Pakistan’s swat valley on invitation of local chamber of commerce.

Security personnel stand near a damaged police vehicle at the site of a bomb explosion, in Malam Jabba at Swat district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Sept. 22, 2024.

October 4^th: insurgents ambushed a military convoy in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province’s North Waziristan district adjacent to the Afghan frontier. The assault resulted in deaths of 6 soldiers, including an officer, and the 6 assailants were also killed in exchange of fire. 22 soldiers also got injured.
October 5^th: At least 7 personnel were killed and 2 wounded in Kurram, a border district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
October 5^th: officials in southwestern Balochistan province reported that insurgents detonated a roadside bomb near a military convoy Saturday, killing three soldiers and injuring four others. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility.
October 6^th: The Majeed Brigade of BLA took responsibility for the attack near Jinnah International Airport in Karachi on Sunday night.
- At least two Chinese perished in the attack prompting condemnation from Chinese embassy.
- A “tanker truck” likely laden with IED had exploded on Airport Road.
- A convoy from the Port Qasim Electric Power Company was the target.
- At least 10 people were injured and multiple vehicles were destroyed.

Pakistan’s Response?

Pakistan continues its crackdown on minorities and minority interest groups:
Pakistani authorities have banned a popular civil rights movement, the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), that campaigns for the country’s ethnic Pashtun minority.
Pakistani interior ministry accuses the group of activities “harmful to public order and security” in the country.
Pakistan’s police raided and arrested PTM leaders and members ahead of a “curial jirga” or people’s assembly on October 11 in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province.

Pakistan’s Blame Game

Pakistan claims that the TTP, also known as the Pakistani Taliban, operates from Afghanistan and carries out cross-border attacks with the support of the Taliban government.
Islamabad alleges that BLA and its allies are also increasingly using Afghan sanctuaries to orchestrate deadly attacks in the country.
However, during a conference of regional countries hosted by Russia on Friday, the Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi disputed terrorism-related concerns, claiming their government restored “security and stability” in Afghanistan.
Recently, Pakistan indirectly blames India for disrupting situation in the country ahead of the SCO meet. Pakistan’s Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal says Pakistan’s “humsaya mulk’s agenda to disrupt SCO”, blames opposition PTI over its call for nationwide protests.

In a rough translation of a post on X by Abdul Qahar Balkhi, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson, he wrote, “In the neighbouring country of Pakistan, the tension between the supporters of the government and the political opponents has reached an alarming level, which may continue to have a negative impact on the entire region.”

Internal Turmoil

The ruling PML-N leadership wants PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) to be treated as a terrorist group amidst “unending protests” ahead of SCO summit.
Pakistan blames everyone but itself: Punjab Information Minister Azma Bokhari alleged that foreign interests from Israel, Afghanistan, and India were backing Imran Khan.
On Saturday, as many as 564 PTI individuals were arrested, including 11 plainclothes Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Police personnel, as Pakistan’s interior ministry claimed that attempts to storm the capital were made.
As desperation runs high, a PTI barrister invited India’s foreign minister to participate in the protests in a major embarrassment for Pakistan.

Is Pakistan a Capable Player For SCO or a Security Liability?

Pakistan is unable to handle its security woes.
An area around an international airport was attacked at a time when arrival of SCO delegates and diplomats is awaited.
Foreigners, especially Chinese, are regularly targeted in Balochistan.
Diplomatic missions in Pakistan have been attacked before.
Its own soldiers are regularly ambushed by Pashtun outfits and Baloch insurgents. Its capital was almost stormed by PTI supporters.
It is also facing external pressure amidst regional instability caused by actions of an incapable political administration and a heavily burdened army.