Ever since the Galwan episode, Indian strategic thinkers have ruminated on the possibility of a full-scale war between India and China. Given the current geopolitical footing, such contingencies are pertinent to war games. Galwan proved to be an eye-opener. It illustrated that China can never be trusted. Any agreement with China is not even worth the paper it’s written on. Furthermore, repeated calls by Xi for the PLA to be prepared for war make it even more rational for India to be ready for any future war with China. However, the cardinal issue for Indian establishments is to ascertain the Russian role in such a conflict. Russia would play a pivotal role in such a conflict, given its proximity to both India and China. In this article, we’ll discuss the possible Russian stance in the
Also Read- Understanding Dynamics Of India-Russia Relations
GROUND REALITIES: UNVEILING INDO-RUSSIA, SINO-RUSSIA DYNAMICS
National interest is Nine-tenths of international relations. For a nation to throw its weight behind other nations it’s predominant that their interest coincides. Similarly, for Russia to pick sides it’s essential to analyse its interest dynamics vis-a-vis India and China. For this, we’ll analyse Russia’s economic, defence and strategic alignment with India and China.
ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT
RUSSIA-INDIA TRADE
India-Russia trade has been gradually expanding. Bilateral trade in the financial year 2022–23 accounted for a record $39.8 billion, with India importing ever-increasing quantities of heavily discounted oil from Russia. It further increased to USD 57 billion in 2023, going up 23% in January–April 2024. This rise in trade amounts to increased exports to India, mainly oil and fertilisers, while its pharmaceuticals, machinery, and chemicals found their way into Russia. This is also the case, partly due to Western sanctions imposed on Russia after its Ukraine military campaign. Western sanctions on Moscow made it turn to other non-western countries like India, thus shifting trading dynamics significantly.
RUSSIA-CHINA TRADE
Conversely, commerce between China and Russia has increased by leaps and bounds. China and Russia’s bilateral commerce reached a record $240 billion in 2023, up 26.3% from the year before. The exports from China to Russia increased by 46.9%, while Russian imports to China increased by 13% during this period. The main causes of this boom were sustained Russian oil exports to China and notable growth in Chinese exports to Russia. Energy is a vital component of Russia’s commercial relationship with China, which has grown to be its biggest trading partner. China imported $76.4 billion worth of oil from Russia. China imported more than 2 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day in 2023, demonstrating the strengthening of economic relations between the two nations.
DEFENCE ENGAGEMENT
INDIA-RUSSIA TIES
Since independence, India has maintained a robust defence relationship with Russia. Russia has been a key supplier of military hardware to India. The two nations have collaborated on several significant defence projects, including the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile and the development of the T-90 tanks. Russia has also supplied India with a variety of advanced military equipment, such as Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighters, MiG-29K aircraft, and the S-400 Triumf air defence system. In terms of numbers, India has been one of the largest importers of Russian military equipment. From 2016 to 2020, 49% of India’s total arms imports came from Russia. However, there has been a gradual diversification in India’s defence procurement, with increasing purchases from the United States, France, and Israel. Moreover, both nations engage in a series of joint military exercises named INDRA, further bolstering defence interoperability.
RUSSIA-CHINA TIES
Russia and China also enjoy a stout defence engagement. Between 2017 and 2021, Russia was one of the largest arms suppliers to China, accounting for approximately 17% of China’s total arms imports. This included S-400 air defence systems and Su-35 fighter jets. Russian arms exports to China are estimated to have been around $37 billion since the early 1990s. However, there has been a decline in defence purchases by China, given its budding defence industry. Amidst the colourful picture of Sino-Russian defence engagement, there are also shades of grey in it. China has been repeatedly accused of stealing Russian arms technology and reverse engineering to cultivate its weapons. However, despite these charges, Russia is forced to maintain defence engagement simply due to market constraints, courtesy of Western sanctions. Furthermore, both nations carry out joint military exercises like the Vostok and Exercise Joint Sea.
STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT
INDIA-RUSSIA TIES
India and Russia have maintained a strategic relationship for decades, built on historical ties, mutual interests, and extensive cooperation across various sectors. The highlights of this partnership include the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 1971, which solidified their alliance during the Indo-Pakistani War. Apart from defence, India and Russia also cherish a robust partnership in the space and energy sectors. As of today, India is one of the largest buyers of Russian crude oil. Furthermore, Russia also bagged a deal to construct six nuclear power plants with a capacity of 1000 MW in Kudankulam, Tamil Nadu. In the space sector, it was Russia that assisted India in launching its first space satellite, Aryabhata, in 1975. Even today, Russia is assisting India in its first manned space programme, Gaganyaan. This reflects the comfort and confidence between the two nations, which are the cornerstones of their strategic partnership.
RUSSIA-CHINA TIES
Russia and China have a strategic partnership, particularly in the context of their mutual tensions with the West. This relationship has been described as a “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination.” The partnership has been bolstered by shared interests in countering US influence globally. This engagement also extends to other sectors i.e. energy and infrastructure. China and Russia have recently developed a Siberian gas pipeline for direct transportation of natural gas from the Siberian Altai region to north-eastern China. Russia is also a party to China’s BRI project. Russia and China developed the Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP), a concept Moscow has promoted as a response to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that would fuse the Eurasian Economic Union with the BRI, as a regional or “local” project. This depicts the imminence of the Russia-China strategic partnership.
WHO’S SIDE WOULD RUSSIA PICK?
The million-dollar question remains: who’s side would Russia pick in a Sino-India conflict? To answer this question, one needs to look at the nature of the engagement Russia has with India and China. The aforementioned paragraphs give you a fair idea of the significance of India and China in the Russian worldview. Keeping that in mind, any future Sino-India war would be a worst-case scenario for Russian national interests. This would be a tightrope situation for Russian diplomacy. Such a conflict would be a well-in-front, ditch-in-the-back situation for Russia. Furthermore, picking sides would come at the cost of alienating others. Favouring China would mean pushing India further towards the US and Western bloc, plus losing Indian defence and energy markets, which is antithetical to Russian interests. Favouring India, on the other hand, would mean losing its biggest trading partner and an important member of its anti-America bandwagon.
Given all the considerations, in the event of a conflict, Russia is likely to adopt the doctrine of “pragmatic neutrality,” balancing its ties with both India and China. It will seek to avoid antagonising either country and might offer to mediate between India and China to de-escalate tensions. Russia’s response would likely be shaped by the specifics of the conflict and its broader geopolitical implications. Many analysts believe that, due to Russia’s economic vulnerability and dependence on China, Russia may lean towards China. However, it would strive to avoid taking actions that would significantly damage its relationship with India. Russia is well aware of American policy to create a rift between India and Russia, and so it won’t give any giveaways for America to exploit and court India to its side. This approach aligns with Russia’s interest in maintaining stability in the region and preserving its relationships with both nations.
EXPLORING INDIAN OPTIONS: PREPARING FOR THE INEVITABLE
As they say, precaution is better than cure, and India too needs to prepare for any contingencies it may face in the future. Russia or no Russia, India must make sure that it is well placed to protect its interests despite any external support or resistance. To achieve such a level of preparedness, India must consider the following options:
STRENGTHENING ALLIANCES
India must deepen its strategic partnership with the United States and enhance cooperation within the Quad, which includes the US, Japan, and Australia. This would bolster India’s position in the Indo-Pacific region and counterbalance Chinese influence. Furthermore, strengthened ties with European nations, particularly those wary of Chinese expansionism. France is one such partner that India is bolstering its engagement with. Increased cooperation in trade, defence, and technology with the EU could provide India with significant strategic advantages.
DIVERSIFYING DEFENCE PARTNERSHIP
India must reduce its dependence on Russian military equipment by diversifying defence procurement. To achieve it, India should explore other options. This includes engaging with countries like the US, France, Israel, and others for advanced defence technology and weaponry. But, most importantly, India should focus on accelerating the development of the domestic defence industry to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and enhance self-reliance. Aatmanirbhar Bharat is one such step taken by the present administration in this regard.
DOMESTIC PREPAREDNESS
Logistics and infrastructure are the backbones of any nation. An army is as good as its logistics. Therefore, India must improve its infrastructure and logistics along the border regions to ensure rapid deployment and better support for the armed forces. On the other hand, fostering national unity and resilience through public awareness and preparedness programmes is a must. It is pertinent to ensure that the civilian population is informed and ready to support national defence efforts when the time comes. This would help to keep the morale of the nation intact in the face of China’s psychological subversion tactics.
CONCLUSION
In a nutshell, Russia’s stance in a hypothetical India-China conflict would be influenced by its strategic need to balance relations with both countries. While economic dependencies might nudge Russia closer to China, historical ties and defence cooperation with India would necessitate a cautious, neutral, and possibly mediating role to avoid alienating either partner. Nonetheless, the best course for India is to develop its indigenous capabilities and design policies that are impermeable to external considerations. Self-reliance is the key to facing any future contingency with control and confidence.
