Hello defence lovers! Our worst fears have become a reality. Kabul has fallen. Taliban will soon take over entire Afghanistan officially. All hopes of saving Asraf Ghani’s government are gone now as he has peacefully surrendered. In this article, we are going to discuss what will be the implication of the fall of Kabul on India.
The Background
Intense fighting had been going on for months after the US announced its complete withdrawal from Afghanistan. Taliban was capturing city after city. However, the Afghan defence forces were giving the Taliban a very tough fight. The situation was quite volatile and unstable. It seemed that Afghanistan was heading towards an inevitable civil war.
Now Kabul has fallen and the Taliban will assume power in Afghanistan shortly. Meanwhile, Ashraf Ghani has left Afghanistan and escaped to Tajikistan. This is very sad news for the people of Afghanistan as all atrocities of the Taliban are going to resume.
Implications On India
This is also a major loss for India. Strategically Afghanistan was very important for India. Now it’s completely gone. As long as Ashraf Ghani and the Afghan national army were fighting the Taliban, there was still hope. India could have provided military assistance in terms of training and equipment to the Afghan forces. But now this is impossible.
Now there won’t be any discussion with the Taliban which will constitute the new government of Afghanistan as dealing or negotiating with the terrorist is strictly against Indian policies.
Indian Investments in Afghanistan are gone now. Taliban will destroy every single Indian development project. This will affect India’s ambitions as well as the common Afghan people. India had plans to gain access to the markets of Central Asia through Charbahar in Iran and then through Afghanistan. Now all the investments made in this ambition are in vain.
Moreover, India has also lost a pro-Indian ally in the region. Now it is quite clear that the Taliban is building its ties with China. The new Taliban government will be pro-China and pro-Pakistan initially. Perhaps China and Pakistan would be the first nations to recognize this government. The situation will become even more dangerous if China starts providing the Taliban with advanced weapons such as Surface to Air missile systems. Anything is possible under China’s spineless foreign policy.
Pakistan and ISI will definitely now try to use Taliban fighters to destabilize Kashmir. It will try to push these militants into Indian Soil through the infiltration of the LOC. But one thing both Pakistan and the Taliban have to understand is that Indian Army is not an Afghan army. All insurgents be it a Taliban fighter or a regular Pakistani terrorist, will be slaughtered by the Indian armed forces if they try to enter our country. Our forces are prepared to take proper care of them.
Taliban Will Backfire
China and Pakistan might celebrate their victory for the Fall of Kabul. But they must understand that the Taliban is a Rouge organization. Its government will be a rouge government. They don’t have any ideals or rules. They lack a proper command structure. Trusting the Taliban is the costliest mistake of China and Pakistan ever.
Taliban will definitely support East Turkestan Movement (ETM) in China. The ETM is the movement of Uigur Muslims of Xinjian in China, in which they demand a separate country called East Turkestan. The assurance that the Taliban had given to the Chinese Communist Party that it will not support ETM is of no value. Pakistan is also facing the same threats but the morons who are in power just cannot understand that. An organization called Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is active in the country and is responsible for many terror attacks. TTP is inspired by the Afghan Taliban. The fall of Kabul will be a morale booster for TTP. Moreover, there are reports that the Taliban has freed TTP leaders from the prisons in Afghanistan. Pakistan has dugged its own grave without realizing it.
Conclusion
Afghanistan is a lost cause. There was nothing India could have done to save it. India’s policy of “No boots on the ground” was the right approach. External powers can just provide assistance. The people of Afghanistan have to fight for themselves. Moreover, Afganistan is a graveyard of empires. If superpowers like USSR and the US cannot control it, with limited resources and a bunch of other security threats, there was nothing India could do. Apart from these, there is always a dirty game going on behind the scenes in Afghanistan to topple the existing force ruling the country. What we can do is evacuate all the Indians from Afghanistan and pray for the common people of Afghanistan, especially the women.
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